Use of the WRF model to forecast the extreme weather event of October 2021 in Sicily

Abstract

In recent decades, the effects of climate change and, in particular those caused by global warming, have been increasingly correlated with weather trends. In fact, recent studies have shown that extreme weather events today occur with greater intensity and frequency than in the past. This is discussed in the most recent IPCC AR6 reports. The southern Mediterranean area is increasingly affected by intense meteorological events, such as for example heavy rainfall and heat waves. In recent years (2020 and 2021), two Tropical-Like Cyclone, also defined as Mediterranean Hurricanes – Medicanes, developed in this area. With this regard, the aim of this work is to study through a modelling approach the so-called Apollo Medicane, which affected the Mediterranean Sea in the last days of October 2021. The extreme weather event caused intense rainfall and strong winds in southern Italy, particularly in eastern Sicily. In this context, the simulation was carried out by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model inba configuration at 3 km of horizontal resolution, which was specifically optimized for the Sicily region. Finally, the rainfall maps forecasted by WRF model were compared with rainfall accumulations recorded by the Sicilian weather stations. The comparison shows a good agreement between the predicted maps and observed data.