Modelling and forecasting temperature and precipitation in Italy

Authors

  • Mario Lefebvre Polytechnique MontrĂ©al

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1478/AAPP.972A2

Keywords:

Markov processes, Forecasting, Limiting probabilities.

Abstract

We study the monthly average temperature in Italy for the period 1991-2015. The increase or decrease of the average temperature with respect to the previous year is modelled as a discrete-time Markov chain having four possible states. Similarly, a Markov chain is proposed as a model for the variations of the monthly amount of precipitation. Based on these models, it is possible to forecast whether the temperature and the amount of precipitation are likely to vary significantly in the long term.

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Published

2019-07-06

Issue

Vol. 97 No. 2 (2019)

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License
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